Understanding Prices
Learn how prices reflect probabilities
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Price as Probability
Each share is priced between $0 and $1:
- A price of $0.70 means the market estimates a 70% chance the outcome is true.
- A price of $0.20 means a 20% chance.
How Payouts Work
- If the outcome resolves as true → each share pays $1
- If false → shares pay $0
Example: You buy 100 “Yes” shares at $0.40.
- Cost = $40
- If “Yes” wins, payout = $100 → profit = $60
- If “No” wins, payout = $0
Why Prices Move
Prices change as traders buy and sell:
- High demand for “Yes” pushes price up
- More “No” sellers push price down
This continuous trading updates the real-time probability shown in the market.